Is POET Technologies the next Qualcomm or the New Coke?

Many analysts and talking heads and prognosticators from CNBC to YouTube have talked about POET being to photonics what ARM is to semiconductors, because of the manufacturing model. Or maybe like Qualcomm because of the licensing. What if it's both of those AND Coca-Cola to boot? The photonics sector is set to explode over the next decade. With a TAM estimated north of $25 billion by 2030 that money has to go somewhere. The race is likely to be decided within the next 18 months.

If POET can slay the TSMC dragon and establish themselves as the primary platform due to lowering the labor cost somewhere in the neighborhood of 70%, a big if, but possible if that number is proven, you are looking at the New Coke. By using half as many lasers and passive alignment (flip chip), they have created a platform that is not only universal between DR8 and 2xFR4 but can also be manufactured at scale of a million units a year. If the labor is down by 70% and the cost of lasers is half, that's the making of a giant killer. Once any major manufacturer builds their entire product line around POET's optical interposer, the 18 to 24 months it takes to redesign everything is cost and time prohibitive. Should they become the primary platform supplier to such a growing market, the mantle of Coke is theirs. If not, maybe just the same old New Coke. OK idea, horrible timing and execution. Despite the childhood trauma, this time I'm rooting for New Coke.

Over the next few weeks I'll be watching for a confirmation that Luxshare has indeed gone all in on POET as their platform. I happen to think this likely due to Luxshare's press releases surrounding universality in their new product line. I will also be keeping my eye on anything coming from Celestial AI, QCi, Lumentum, or even Foxconn itself. And of course POET in booth 339 at OFC 2026. March 15-19.

Best case scenario would be a confirmation in literature that Luxshare has indeed decided to use POET Technologies as a platform and the whole thing gets real complicated for TSMC. Worst case scenario is TSMC manages to capture too much market share for POET to convince manufacturers to adopt their platform as the industry standard. I give POET a 30% chance of success. Should this be the case, my napkin math puts the valuation at closer to $10 billion a year or a 10x return from here.