THE MILL TRADE RESOLUTION
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THE MILL TRADE RESOLUTION
AG · March 20, 2026 expiration · Final mark: $0.00
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I got the call right. I got the trade wrong. And I had one clean exit and didn't take it.
Here are the numbers. On Feb 24th 2026 we bought call options dated 3-20-26 with a $36 strike price.The 52-week high is $32.04, set the day the article was published. It's now trading between $21 and $22 and silver is rebounding.
The structural thesis is intact. That makes it worse.
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What the numbers knew
The GSS was already trending down when the article went live. It wasn’t a total collapse, going from 28 to 27 to 25, but it was trending the wrong way slowly. The numbers were saying the momentum that built the thesis into the price was bleeding out. I published anyway. That's fine. Thesis conviction isn't the same as price momentum. But I didn't separate them when I entered the position. Doh!
I even called the CME intervention risks in simple English: February 26, trading halted, silver slammed from $91 to $84.98, March open interest cut by 50% in a single session. I called it a demonstration of institutional suppression capacity. Then I held March 20 calls in my greedy paws and watched them all get deployed like a to-do list.
I predicted the very train they would run me over with and held the position anyway.
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What happened on Friday
By Friday February 27 the calls were marked at $1.12. I could’ve locked in 40% profit in 3 days and a proof of concept fresh in hand. The correct move was to close. Greed is frequently the enemy of correct decision making and the father of delusion.
I had gone from sound technical analysis to betting on forced paper settlements. The very COMEX default scenario I had explicitly called a tail risk three days earlier. I knew the exchange had every mechanism to prevent it. I actually wrote that. Then I held through expiration waiting for it anyway.
That is not a thesis. That is a man who found the grain elevator, and stayed because he wanted to watch it burn.
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What actually happened to silver
The March delivery window closed without a formal default. The CME emptied their whole toolbox in one week using margin hikes, EFP cash settlements, aggressive open interest management. They managed to compress the prices for paper contracts and the price of AG followed the paper, not physical fundamentals.
The underlying supply story didn't change. Six consecutive years of deficit. COMEX registered inventory is still depleted. Eligible inventory levels are at all time lows and mostly spoken for. China's export restrictions are still in place. Industrial demand is still outpacing mine supply. AG reported Q4 2025 EPS of $0.30, 66.67% above forecast. Revenue $463.9 million. Cash position is $940 million. No hedges. The company the article described is performing exactly as the article described.
The stock is at $21.86. Down 31% from the day I published.
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My 3 mistakes in order
First: The strike and expiration didn't match the thesis timeline. The article described a three-phase thesis with May 13 earnings as phase two and full-year repricing as phase three. The position expired March 20. That contradiction was visible before the trade was placed.
Second: I held through a CME intervention window I had already identified and named. The February 26 halt was a demonstration. I treated it as background color instead of a signal about what March would look like.
Third: on Friday February 27 with a 40% gain and a clean exit, I converted a thesis position into a tail risk bet. The thesis said COMEX default is a tail risk. I held the position hoping for the tail risk. Those two things cannot both be true at the same time.
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What comes next
The structural thesis on AG is still valid. Stronger now at $21.86 than it was at $31.88. The May 13 earnings report will show Q1 realized silver prices against analyst models that haven't caught up. The First Mint premium still exists. The no-hedge leverage still exists. The $940 million cash position still exists.
The next position, when it comes, will match the instrument to the timeline. Not March calls on a May thesis. Not tail risk bets disguised as conviction.
The grain is still there. I just paid $240 to learn not to wait for the elevator to burn.
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The author held 3x AG March 20 $36 call options entered February 24, 2026 at $0.80 per contract. Position expired worthless March 20, 2026. Total loss: $240. AG closes today at $21.86. The author holds no current AG options position. This is not investment advice. See full disclaimer.